PTA "Bottom" Is More Than Action?

According to convention, before the Spring Festival every year, downstream polyester enterprises usually replenish raw materials inventory. Recently, the PTA futures market is also a "bet" spot market "bottom" sentiment. What is the current situation of replenishment of polyester enterprises?

"In the case of PTA raw materials falling to historical lows, polyester enterprises' mentality of" bottom hunting "is indeed quite obvious. Wang Guangqian, a futures analyst at Soochow, said that under the premise of sufficient cash flow, polyester enterprises in Zhejiang have stepped up the reserves of PTA raw materials and are actively reducing the finished product inventory. Past Polyester enterprise The PTA raw material inventory is mostly maintained at the level of 5 to 6 days. At present, the raw material inventory of the mainstream enterprises is mostly 7 to 10 days. In addition, the production and sale rate of polyester polyester in the near future is generally maintained at above 100% level. When it is good, the production and sale rate can reach 600% a day, and the downstream enterprises also have the reason to increase the intensity of raw material reserves.

However, it should be noted that PTA In the current round of decline, although the downstream polyester enterprises began to "copy the bottom", but did not dare to weigh heavily, mainly worried about the continued decline in oil prices.

"At present, polyester enterprises focus on oil prices. From the actual understanding, some polyester enterprises have already bought PTA futures, partly because they feel the current situation. Price Too low, on the other hand, is calculated according to the price of downstream products, and it has already been able to generate profits, so it has bought a hedge. Galaxy futures analysis Jinsong normal.

At present, polyester enterprises in Zhejiang are still purchasing raw materials on demand. When the market is not short of raw materials, they are not willing to hoard large quantities, but they have established certain virtual stocks on the futures market, which has also led to the futures upgrading structure.

Where is the balance in the long and short game? There seems to be no standard answer from the results of field research.

During the survey period, a factor that caused the sharp decline of PTA in the early stage has undergone subtle changes. The higher inventory of PTA industry chain has significantly reduced, and the intervention of the market "bottom up" funds has led to the recent rebound in PTA futures prices.

However, the recent decline in crude oil has once again affected the mood of the PTA market. On Monday, PTA futures prices fell nearly 180 yuan / tonne from last week's high.

Perhaps the trend of crude oil prices will be the key factor to guide the direction of PTA market, which will largely determine the outcome of PTA futures.

Although the cost side changes are still unknown at the moment, some people in the industry believe that the PTA and spot markets will generally rise and fall before the Spring Festival when crude oil falls earlier than before.