February 20Th Market Morning Post: PTA Library Exceeded Expectations

One Focus

One , Libya's crude oil supply is facing a risk of contracting, and public health factors are improving. International oil prices are up seven. Right. The cost and mentality of chemical products are well supported. (good)      

Two The price of raw materials PX rose by 8.66 US dollars to 751.83 US dollars / ton, and the PTA processing interval dropped by 71 yuan / ton to 346 yuan / ton. (good)      

Three The comprehensive operation rate of domestic PTA installations is stable at 81.48%, increasing the new capacity of 2 million 500 thousand tons of constant power, and adjusting the domestic production capacity to 52 million 390 thousand tons in February. After February, the pressure of storage and the narrowing of processing area, some small and medium-sized production lines and large lines have parking or falling, but the construction is still relatively high. (negative)     

Four The domestic polyester comprehensive operation is stable at 59.12% (the total domestic production capacity is 58 million 990 thousand tons). Affected by domestic protective policies, the polyester commencement started to decline continuously after the holiday, and it is expected to remain low in February. (short term negative)

Five Recently, various regions have introduced different policies for resuming work and opening roads, and downstream polyester enterprises have started or gradually resumed, but the conditions are severe, and the resumption of work remains to be seen. (good)

Two Basic data

Three Price list

Four Forecasts and recommendations

After the impact of shrinking profits and high inventory prices, some domestic PTA plants started to go down, but the overall situation is still relatively high, and the downstream polyester has been greatly affected by the events, and the recovery is slow. Optimistic expectations are expected to be effective in the end of February or early March. The specific progress is yet to be verified. The spot basis is continuing to be weak, the warehouse receipts are increasing, and the PTA day storage remains at more than thirty thousand tons. Short term PTA is hard to get rid of the weak supply and demand pattern. For most varieties of PTA or polyester industry chain, it is a fact that after the holiday is over, the future price changes must focus on the impact of events on the short-term economy and the impact of PTA's micro level demand. The core is the increase in inventory and the inflection point of growth. For the 05 contract, the warehouse is still beyond the expectation that supply and demand are dominant. It is suggested that the operation continue to follow the trend. The pre holiday trend will continue to hold. Taking into account the low price history of the current price and the low processing interval of 350 yuan / ton, and the continuous rise of crude oil for seven consecutive days, the market sentiment has been boosted.