2019 New Home Sales Or Up To 16 Trillion New High Housing Prices Consolidation Curtain

This is a year of ebb and flow, and every housing company is thinking carefully about how to live.

The sales volume of the new housing market reached a 15 trillion peak last year, and is expected to hit 16 trillion this year, approaching the ceiling.

The competition of the scale of the housing enterprises has also reached the critical point. The cake in the future market is so large and may even shrink. The reshuffling of the industry has started vigorously. The small and medium sized housing enterprises who have been out of the cold winter have been out of the game. Fewer and fewer players are playing.

The top ten and the top three housing companies also took turns. As a merger and acquisition king of the housing enterprises, Sun Hongbin led the third generation of China's rights and interests in the financial industry, while Shimao, who had been left behind for many years, took the lead in the dark horse against Longhu and pushed ahead again to the top ten.

In the final battle of the scale, some people win by selling, others win by mergers and acquisitions, and the rearrangement of sales relocations of Housing enterprises is fierce. The competition pattern of the next ten years is reshaping.

The rank is coming soon.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, sales of commercial housing in China amounted to 15 trillion yuan in 2018. In December 26th this year's "white paper 2020 real estate finance" press conference, Ping An Bank governor Hu Yuefei predicted that in 2019, the national sales of commercial housing will hit a new high of nearly 16 trillion yuan.

Hu Yuefei pointed out that the concentration of the real estate industry will continue to increase rapidly in the future. The environment is very different from the past. The market share will be more transferred to the mainstream Housing enterprises, and the consolidation of the industry will be a necessary step.

By the end of November, 100% of the housing enterprises accounted for 73.9% of the total sales in the country, while ten years ago, the index was only 22%. In the past three years, the rate of 10 percentage points per year was increasing.

Only a few days away from 2020, all major housing companies are sprinting their final performance in order to cope with the age of qualifying.

As of the end of November, according to the statistics released by Kerri in January 2019 -11 month Housing enterprises selling TOP100 list, according to the sales statistics of full caliber, 27 Housing enterprises in the country have entered the "100 billion club", compared with 25 in the same period in 2018, the number of houses increased by 2, and the camp of 100 billion housing enterprises expanded.

Moreover, Xiangsheng real estate, Jia Zhaoye, Binjiang group, Blu ray development, Mei real estate, long long real estate and Rongsheng development 7 Housing enterprises sales exceeded 90 billion yuan, are expected to push into the "100 billion club" after the end of the year's performance.

In the strong and strong real estate industry, the performance of leading housing enterprises is even more prominent. TOP10 has 7 Housing enterprises' sales performance increasing. Biguiyuan achieved the full caliber sales amount of 86 billion yuan in November, ranking the first in the full bore performance list by 751 billion 540 million yuan, leading second Chinese Hengda 166 billion 60 million yuan.

Hengda also brushes its achievements with the promotion of the whole country. The sales records in September, October and November were 83 billion 110 million yuan, 90 billion 300 million yuan and 42 billion yuan respectively. At the end of October, they were second in full caliber.

Shimao is the largest black horse. This year, through the promotion and merger and acquisition of food, Longhu has pushed ahead to the top ten. At the end of November, the total caliber of Shimao, Huarun and Longhu was 227 billion 730 million yuan, 226 billion 100 million yuan and 222 billion 730 million yuan respectively, and the gap was still less than ten billion. The number of these competitors has almost become normal. After December rearrangement, one of them is likely to be out of TOP10 status.

The competition for TOP20's seats is also fierce. Zhongliang ranks 20 in the full bore amount of 131 billion yuan, compared with less than ten billion of the following Fuli, Zheng Rong and Rongxin. The competition pattern of TOP50 is also aggravating, and the threshold of rights and interests has increased by 12.8% to 45 billion 820 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

A noteworthy episode is that Hengda and Biguiyuan rank the first second in terms of sales rights and interests, while China, with its tiny advantage of 810 million yuan, surpasses Vanke in the first three.

China's overtaking in the financial sector has already had a clue. At the end of September, Vanke's profit and sales volume was about 30000000000 more than that of China. At the end of October, the difference between the two rights and interests sales was about 10000000000.

Industry reshuffle

Market competition is changing from incremental to stock. In this game of big fish eating small fish and even big fish eating big fish, every family wants to rush to eat more, and the concentration of Housing enterprises keeps rising. For the high leverage enterprises, this is a contest of scale that no one will let go.

According to Kerri statistics, from 1 to November, the number of typical enterprises receiving M & A and the number of land sold by agreement was 12%.

China and Shimao are the winners of this year's mergers and acquisitions. Their waves in the top ten position wars are not without cause. Sales are constantly attacking their peers.

As a leading housing company, China has absorbed many assets such as pan Hai holdings, sunshine 100 China, Chang Shi Group, new lake Zhong Bao, Yunnan city investment, overseas Chinese town and so on this year. The total cost has exceeded 40 billion.

Among them, the end of November, at the end of the year, it bought 15 billion 269 million stake in Yunnan city's global century and 51% times in the end of November. For tens of millions of transactions, Sun Hongbin also said in a press conference, "we have 500 billion cash a month, and what is the difficulty of buying one thing ten billion? There is no difficulty. We buy things instead of buying them and hiding them. We buy them and sell them at a higher price. We are very restrained now. "

At the end of the year, Shimao, who is the ten largest in the housing sector, has also continued to copy the bottom this year, swallowing the assets of Taihe Group, Ming FA group, Wantong real estate, Kai Cheng Industrial, Lijun real estate, Guangdong Thai stock company and so on. It can be said that most of the new value added this year is acquired through mergers and acquisitions.

Since March this year, Taihe has sold lots of land to Shimao, and has sold part of its 11 projects to Shimao shares, which has accumulated about ten billion yuan. In mid December, Shimao was also exposed to a 40% equity merger with Fu Sheng to acquire part of the shares of fortune group's real estate sector to acquire more land reserves, with a transaction volume of up to 200 billion.

At the beginning of the Hongkong performance conference, Xu Shitan, President of Shimao, has said that the M & A will be increased in 2019, and more than 70% of the land storage will come from M & A. it will take 50% of the money back to buy land. According to Shimao property's first half year earnings report, the total liabilities of Shimao in the first half of the year were about 304 billion 700 million yuan, up by 32.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the total current liabilities amounted to about 214 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 39% over the same period, and the total amount of non current liabilities was about 90 billion 388 million yuan, an increase of 19.12% over the same period last year.

On the other hand, the leading housing enterprises have been collecting mergers and acquisitions, while the other side is the departure of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises. Most of the enterprises being bought and sold are the housing companies that have problems in the capital chain.

In the era of financial creation, the global debt amounted to 6 billion 402 million yuan before the takeover, while the group that had been swallowed by Mr. Shimao did not have to say that in the past year, because of the problem of funds and liabilities, they were trapped in public opinion whirlpool, and the new town treasure, which was bought by Rand and Greentown, was no exception.

Many industry insiders believe that the merger and consolidation of Housing enterprises is related to the overall market downturn and the tightening of financing environment. Some small and medium-sized Housing enterprises' capital chain breakage is a common problem. Leading housing enterprises can take advantage of this expansion.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think-tank center of Yi Ju Research Institute, believes that the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises is related to various factors, such as poor housing sales and few opportunities to take place, plus policy and capital constraints. When the pressure increases, the project will naturally be disposed of through mergers and acquisitions. Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei pointed out that housing prices, not only the larger scale differentiation, the financing cost differentiation is also very obvious, the tightening of financing for small and medium-sized Housing enterprises in financing scale and cost impact is relatively large.

Overall, Guangdong provincial housing policy research center chief researcher Li Yujia expects that in the next few years, the trend of mergers and acquisitions of Housing enterprises will be more obvious. Judging from this year's situation, the financing side of Housing enterprises has been severely restricted, and the financing channels of the listed housing enterprises have been narrowed down, and the financing cost is high. This is a way of survival for small and medium sized housing enterprises with low cost control capability.