Improvement Of Domestic Cotton Supply And Demand In 2015/2016

According to the prediction of main institutions, 2015/2016 China Cotton production is expected to be between 5 million 400 thousand and 5 million 900 thousand tons, consumption is between 7 million 300 thousand and 7 million 950 thousand tons, and the end inventory is down 300 thousand to 950 thousand tons compared with 2014/2015. The overall supply and demand relationship has improved, and domestic cotton has entered the inventory cycle.

Due to the narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton prices and the increase in demand for medium and high quality cotton in Chinese enterprises, ICE cotton has bottomed out. International cotton prices have risen steadily, and enterprises have imported a lot. Outer cotton The power is weakened. Import cotton is limited by quotas and has limited impact on the domestic market.

In addition, according to the state Throw store The principle of "no pressure on the market" is likely to be sold in a bid at the beginning of the year or even at the end of the year, even if 2015/2016 is sold. Judging from the big cycle, cotton prices have entered the bottom up stage.

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As we all know, PX as PTA raw material, PX price changes to some extent, PTA price changes. In April, apart from the influence factors of Tenglong aromatics deflagration accident, it was also learned that the maintenance plan of the PX device in the 2 quarter was more concentrated. To a certain extent, maintenance was expected to boost the atmosphere of the PX market. By taking the aromatics incident of Tenglong as an opportunity, the price of PX rose, and April PX rose to 17% left and right. And the upside of the cost side is driving PTA prices higher.

The price of naphtha did not increase strongly, so the profit of PX cash flow improved significantly as the price of PX rose. As of April 28th, the price of PX was 966 US dollars / ton (CFR China), and its profit was 88.02 US dollars / ton, which was greatly improved compared with 9 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. But the PX profit is far higher than the average profit of 42 US dollars / ton in 2015. Faced with a higher level of production profit and PTA startup expectations, it is still necessary to consider whether PX production enterprises will be able to maintain the planned overhaul.

Returning to PTA itself, although there is a maintenance plan for MITSUBISHI chemical and other PTA devices in May, it is not yet clear whether the Xiang Lu petrochemical plant can be restarted. However, if there is a restart plan for such devices as the Jialong Petrochemical Company, then the PTA operation rate will fluctuate around 68%, compared with the average start up of PTA62.5% in April. From warehouse receipts, as of April 29th, there are still 168 thousand and 800 warehouse receipts (including effective forecasts), about 840 thousand tons of spot goods, if the PTA balance of work started in May to maintain a relative balance, warehouse receipts can not be effectively reduced, then the 1505 delivery or will drag PTA prices again. From the perspective of downstream polyester stock level, due to the rising price in April and the excellent performance of 300%-400% in polyester production and marketing, the inventory level of polyester finished products was relatively low. In addition, in May, there was no definite maintenance plan for polyester enterprises in the near future. In May, the polyester comprehensive operating rate had not been substantially reduced, and there was a good demand for PTA.