Don Hemming: Euro To Us Dollar 1.3100 Is Not The Bottom.

Last week: the market: last week, the general market centered around the two major factors in the situation of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the two major factors in the gap between the two largest crystal machines in Europe and the United States. The US dollar once again pushed up at the end of last Friday and broke the Zhou Zhendang range. The US dollar index rose 82.689 at a weekly rate of 82.689. Under the double pressure, the euro still showed the worst currency in the week. The Russian rouble fell 1% against the US dollar and reported 37.1225 rubles, hitting a historical low of 37.207 rubles. The yen was again highlighted by the Ukraine crisis, and the dollar was 104.08 against the yen, an increase of 0.33%. The price of precious metals fell gently on Friday against the double pressure of the US dollar and US stocks. Spot gold fell 2.50 US dollars, or 0.19%, at 1286.80 US dollars / ounce, and spot silver closed at $19.44 / ounce when Zhou Zhenfu did not perform well. Crude oil market, because of the market worried that the escalating situation in Ukraine may trigger further sanctions against Russia and the west, affecting the supply of crude oil. Meanwhile, most of the US economic data released this week are good to boost the demand of the world's largest oil consuming countries. The US crude oil once broke its two week high level on Friday, and finally rose by nearly 1.50%. NYMEX crude oil futures rose 1.41 U.S. dollars, or 1.49%, at 95.96 U.S. dollars / barrel.

Today's market trading main line: this week, the market continues to usher in the super data market. Australia and Canada, the five largest central banks of the UK and Europe, announce the latest interest rate resolution on the platform. The US side will also announce the non farm data in August on Friday. Although today is the first trading day of the week, the usual light market rules may be easily broken by many data, especially the key economic data such as Germany's GDP and euro zone PMI will once again guide the fate of the euro.

The euro continued to fall for two months. The euro area reported an annual inflation rate of 0.3%, the lowest in five years, far below the 1% European Central Bank's "threat zone". The euro has fallen by 3.6% against the US dollar in the past three months, due to its own economic drag and its central bank's quantitative easing policy. Ukraine The situation crisis is undoubtedly a salt sprinkling on this wound. On Friday, the CPI data in the eurozone were indeed in the doldrums, but the performance was still in line with expectations and not too bad, which made the action of the European Central Bank next week full of suspense. From the low performance of the euro exchange rate, investors are still betting that Europe and the bank will act on easing measures, although its actions are not necessarily quantitative easing measures (QE). The European central bank executive Cole (Benoit Coeure) also stressed in the media interview that day, the European Central Bank in need of the city will take more action.

Some institutional experts expect to be in next week. Policy meeting The European Central Bank (ECB) will cut all key interest rates by 10 basis points, and the euro zone benchmark interest rate will fall to an ultra-low level of 0.05%. At the same time, Delaki may give constructive comments on the prospect of future asset purchases, although no statement on quantitative easing (QE) has been issued this month. He also stressed that the ECB is unlikely to start implementing QE immediately, but the official launch of QE will not be later than March 2015. In addition, the European Central Bank t asset support securities (ABS) purchase plan is expected to be implemented in December this year, at the latest or next March. Goldman Sachs predicts that Euro The fair level of the US dollar exchange rate is around 1.19, which means that although the previous record has dropped sharply, the euro exchange rate is still overestimated to a certain extent. The agency pointed out that, in view of the factors that had pushed up the euro exchange rate, there has been a dramatic and complete reversal. At the same time, the situation of the US, the strong and the weak in the economic fundamentals has not changed.

After analyzing the internal cause, we turn to the euro's low fatal external cause. This week's follow-up situation, on Saturday (August 30th), held the summit of the 28 heads of state of the European Union, which has been transferred to the discussion of how to deal with the thorny issue of the situation in Ukraine. The EU will be forced to consider further sanctions against Russia by killing one thousand of its own self harm by eight hundred in the case of Ukraine's army being threatened by defeat and retreat. Its impact on the European economic outlook and the euro exchange rate will also be self-evident. However, considering the direct party of the geopolitical situation, Ukraine and other important parties in Russia, this geopolitical unrest is not necessarily out of reach. Russian President Putin called for immediate talks on the "state status" of southern and Eastern Ukraine on Sunday (August 31st), but his spokesman said that this does not mean that Russia now supports the rebels in seeking independence for their controlled territory. I have pointed out in a previous remittance that Ukraine itself does not want to continue this turmoil and do not want to become a chess player in Russia, the United States and Europe. In view of the interests of new Russia, only Ukraine can reach an agreement with it. This is the only way to achieve political reconciliation.