The Risk Of Textile Industry Is Not Just High Cotton Prices.

Continue to boom and rebound

In the first three quarters of 2010, China's textile industry continued to boom and rebound, but the main business data index picked up somewhat narrowed.

From the perspective of supply, the production and marketing connection of the industry is good, and the production of main products has been growing faster than before. Investment has kept steady growth and the pace of regional structural adjustment has been increasing.

From the perspective of demand, domestic sales continued to flourish, and the supporting role of the industry was more consolidated. The overall growth of exports was faster, and the front of the industrial chain was obviously better than the terminal.

Especially from the perspective of price pmission in the industrial chain, demand driven growth is forming a benign mechanism.

Du Yuzhou, President of China Textile Industry Association, said that China's textile industry has come to a critical stage in changing the mode of growth and upgrading industries.

The basic needs of people's lives are increasing continuously, and the capacity of the domestic market should not be underestimated. We need to consider the industrial cycle from the perspective of the convergence of aggregate supply and total demand, and confirm the "12th Five-Year" development plan as soon as possible.

In the first three quarters, China's textile industry was supported by the global economic recovery, the recovery of the international market demand, the positive macro-economic development of the domestic market and the continued prosperity of the domestic demand market. The total industry output value reached 3 trillion and 365 billion 674 million yuan, an increase of 26.04% over the same period last year, an increase of 18 percentage points over the same period last year, and sales value of 3 trillion and 288 billion 941 million yuan, an increase of 26.36% over the same period last year, a 18.49 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Total output value and sales output value are second only to the historical high level in the same period of 2005.

The growth of total output value and sales output value continued to narrow in 2~7 months, but only slightly expanded in August and September.

The output value of all sub sectors increased faster than that of textile machinery, and the second was linen spinning.

All sub sectors have played a positive role in promoting the growth of the total industrial output value of the whole industry.

Among them, the contribution rate of cotton textile industry output value to gross output value is 28.74%, the clothing industry is 24%, and chemical fiber is 11.96%.

Industry's rapid growth in production and marketing, on the one hand, has benefited from the "three carriages" of investment, exports and domestic sales.

Data show that in 1~9 months, the total investment in fixed assets of the whole industry was 276 billion 291 million yuan, an increase of 25.66% over the same period last year, the growth rate increased by 16.95 percentage points from the same period last year, and the new construction projects grew by 11.26% over the same period last year.

The pace of investment adjustment accelerated, and the investment growth in the central and western regions was significant and the proportion of investment continued to increase.

In the 1~9 months, the investment in the central and western regions increased by 42.61% and 56.12% respectively, and the growth rate of investment was significantly higher than that of the eastern region. The proportion of investment in two regions also increased by 36.12% and 9.95%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.

In 1~9 months, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $149 billion 820 million, up 23.14% from the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 34.25 percentage points over the same period last year, 32.79 percentage points higher than that in 2009, but the growth rate dropped 0.78 percentage points compared with that in 1~8 months.

In the 1~8 months, the export volume of textiles increased by 32.23% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate was 46.72 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year, while the garment export volume increased by 19.02% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 29.1 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year, and the growth rate of textile exports was obviously faster than that of clothing.

Market demand in the US, EU and Japan has picked up. Our textile and apparel exports to developing economies are faster than those of developed economies.

Domestic consumption has become an important support for the operation of the industry, and domestic sales continued to grow rapidly in the first three quarters.

The 1~9 month domestic sales value increased by 28.8% over the same period last year, up 16.65 percentage points from the same period last year, and the proportion of domestic sales continued to rise to 81.14%, up 0.15 percentage points from the previous year.

Domestic retail sales of clothing commodities above the limit were 400 billion yuan, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, which is 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.

On the other hand, the quality of the internal operation of the industry has been steadily improved, which is reflected in the acceleration of new product development, the enhancement of brand value-added, the improvement of labor productivity, the reasonable control of the cost of the period, and the quickening of the efficiency of capital turnover.

In 1~8 months, the labor productivity of the whole industry increased by 23.28% over the same period, while the productivity of the two industries of textile machinery and linen textile increased most obviously.

In addition, the three fee ratio of the industry dropped by 0.28 percentage points over the same period last year, to 5.92%.

The total assets turnover rate of the whole industry was 1.50 times / year, 8.62% faster than the same period last year.

In addition, the employment situation in the industry has eased and employment increased. In 1~8 months, the employment of Enterprises above designated size increased by 1.90% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.19 percentage points over the same period last year.

Future profit growth will decline

With the combined effect of favorable factors both inside and outside, the profitability of China's textile industry has improved significantly since the beginning of this year.

In 1~8 months, the total profit of the industry reached 128 billion 649 million yuan, up 52.42% from the same period last year, up 40.14 percentage points from the same period last year. The profit margin of the industry reached 4.56% and the gross profit margin reached 11.90%, which was higher than that of the same period last year.

And from the different links of the industrial chain, due to the different cost pressures faced by different sectors and the different digestion capabilities of market price pmission, the profit recovery rate of the front terminal industry of the industry chain is faster than that of the post terminal industry.

For example, the profit rate of cotton spinning industry and chemical fiber industry is slightly higher than that of garment industry and finished product industry.

From the perspective of boosting the profit growth of the textile industry, the cotton textile industry has the most prominent role. The garment industry contributes second to the profit growth and the chemical fiber industry ranks third.

The cotton textile industry achieved a total profit of 37 billion 75 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 66.45% over the same period last year, and the total profit of the garment industry was 34 billion 533 million yuan, up 30.92% over the same period last year.

The China Textile Industry Association believes that the world economy and China's economy have entered a comprehensive recovery track under the stimulation of domestic and foreign rescue measures, and the macro environment of the textile industry has been improving, but it also faces unfavorable factors such as the rising price of raw materials.

Considering the domestic and international factors, the main trend of the industry is as follows: first, although the international market has downward pressure, it has the basic conditions for continuing to moderate recovery.

Exchange rate volatility will become the primary factor affecting the export of the industry, and it is expected to slow down export growth slightly.

Two, the domestic demand market will maintain steady and rapid growth under the support of employment and policies.

Three, the low base factor gradually disappeared during the same period last year.

Four, the price of raw materials will continue to rise at a high level, and the cost pressures of the middle and lower reaches will become more prominent. The upstream enterprises will gradually become more obvious as the inventory falls and the financing environment tightens.

Overall, the growth rate of production is basically flat or slightly down, while profit growth has declined.

"The situation is quite complicated this year.

On the international side, although the international economic environment has improved since 2009, the impact of the financial crisis on the industry has not been eliminated. The unemployment rate in the main developed countries is still high, the consumer market has not fundamentally improved, the support power of consumer credit is still very weak, and the recent "currency war" heated up by various factors has made China's textile industry still face greater risks. At home, China's macroeconomic situation slowed down in 2010.

The soaring prices of raw materials, the accelerated pace of RMB appreciation, and the announcement of interest rate increase by the central bank will play a restrictive role in the development of the textile industry.

Sun Huaibin, director of Industry Department of China Textile Industry Association, said.

According to Du Yuzhou, President of the industrial association, we must see that the textile industry has been developing to a critical stage. First, we should actively change the way of development according to the operation of the industry, focus on industrial upgrading, and clarify the purpose and key points of the 12th Five-Year work. Secondly, we must make a good judgement of the situation and study the total supply and total demand. On the one hand, from the demand point of view, China's economy is growing rapidly, people's living standards are constantly improving, and consumption demand is increasing. On the other hand, from the supply angle, China is a large country of fiber production, and the amount of fiber supply is large, which not only meets the market demand, but also solves the livelihood of the people. Finally, in this critical period, we must vigorously develop the circular economy, study the recycling economy, study the technology of fiber recycling, and explore the development potential of the textile industry. China Textile