Guan Qingyou: The Capital Market Is Still In Progress.

　　 Reporter: March 31st, Stock index It has reached a high of 3835.57 points in recent 7 years, and the increase in 2015 has reached 18.58%. Since last year, A shares have experienced two bull market trends. What do you think are the reasons? Is the stock market bubble at the beginning or halfway?

Guan Qingyou: when the bubble broke, you knew it was a bubble. So I don't know if it's halfway or starting. Generally speaking, we have two mainstream views on this round of market: the first is that this market is triggered by the possibility that the economy may enter a short period of bottoming or stabilization, coupled with capital surplus, triggering the reaction of the stock market. It is considered that this reaction is sustainable, not bubble. The second view is purely capital driven, and a large amount of capital comes out and no place to go, mainly to the stock market.

Personally, I think these two angles are right. A shares All have influence. Because everyone has a full consensus on the underlying downside of the economy. It is expected that the economy will be more clear. In addition, there is a surplus of capital, a large amount of capital coming out, and asset prices being reassessed. For example, when the real estate market has no market, it will enter the stock market. When a large amount of capital flows into the stock market, the value will be reassessed or given a higher premium.

　　 Reporter: last week, millions of investors were killed. equity market To break the historical record. Do you think the market for foreign capital is sustainable?

Guan Qingyou: I think we need to look at some important indicators. The first is the change of the basic thinking of our policy plane, and the central bank's monetary policy remains stable and moderately tight. Then the asset allocation is going through the process of large deposits. This process may not be over yet. Although the regulatory authorities have been cracking down on margin trading since the end of last year, we found that the scale of margin trading is flat or even increased this year, so this process is not over. There are also a lot of fund managers, trust management companies and brokerage management companies who are rushing to the private sector. They are buying products such as stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and other investment products in transformation and production, so the money is still moving in, at least I have not seen the end of this process, or even slowed down. But it may not be as hot as last year's fourth quarter, but the process is not over yet.

　　 Reporter: what specific investment areas do you have in mind and how do these areas play a role in the downward trend of the economy?

Guan Qingyou: in this round of investment boom, I think the regional theme represented by "one belt and one road" may be an increment of capital market, and the overall plan of "manufacturing 2025" has come out. Of course, there are many small themes, such as medicine industry, gene sequencing, Internet + +, online education and so on.

We are very likely to bid for the Winter Olympic Games this year. We may also hold sixth Tibet work symposiums. Plus, "manufacturing 2025" and "Internet +" involve large investment in hardware and software, which may change the downward pressure on our economy.