Will Cotton Market Bloom After Spring Festival?

As of February 26th, all parts of the country

Most of the main bodies have not yet resumed work, and the market is still deserted.

But it is understood that from the end of this month to early March, cotton enterprises and textile enterprises will usher in the peak of reemployment, especially some logistics enterprises have been started in recent days. After a short break after the Spring Festival holiday, the cotton market paction will start again.

Just after the Spring Festival, the Yangtze River Valley has been "spring blossoms".

Will it usher in "spring" after the annual holidays like this weather?

Market sentiment is more optimistic.

Mr. Zhao of Dezhou, Shandong, predicted that the cotton planting area of Shandong Dezhou in 2015 would be greatly reduced.

According to the questionnaire survey conducted by the Dezhou Cotton Association, the cotton planting area decreased by 42% in 2015, the largest drop in recent years.

There are the following reasons: first, increase production and reduce income.

In 2014, Dezhou cotton showed the characteristics of high yield and good quality, but the net income of cotton planting was only 350-425 yuan / mu, 250-300 yuan less than in previous years, and a decrease of about 41%.

In the same period, the net income of cotton farmers was about 1000 yuan per mu, which was 575-650 yuan / mu higher than that of cotton seed.

Second, cotton farmers are hard to sell.

As of February 26th, the sale of seed cotton in Dezhou, Shandong was only about 75%, slower than the same period last year.

According to cotton farmers, cotton brokers and middlemen in Shandong have basically disappeared since 2014/15, and the number of ginning plants has dropped to 14-15, with an average of 1-2 in one county.

Third, Dezhou can grow cotton and land.

The reason why cotton seed is popular in previous years is mainly due to the higher yield of cotton seed. The cotton farmers' tradition of planting cotton has now greatly reduced their income, and farmers have begun to "abandon cotton and pform grain".

The survey found that not only the cotton in Dezhou, Shandong is disappearing, but the cotton planting intentions in 2015 in Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin and Henan all over the the Yellow River valley are not optimistic.

Market participants expect that the cotton planting area will be reduced by 35-40% in the the Yellow River River Basin in 2015, and the total output will also be reduced to below 500 thousand tons.

At that time, cotton production in the the Yellow River River Basin will disappear, and cotton production will be ignored.

"In fact, the situation in the the Yellow River river basin is only a microcosm of cotton cultivation in the mainland. Due to the decline of comparative income and the difficulty of subsidies, the traditional cotton areas such as the Yangtze River Valley have lost their vitality."

According to a cotton trader in Jiangsu, the total output of cotton in the mainland reached 2 million tons in 2014, and the total output in 2015 will be reduced to about 1 million tons, or 50%.

Some market participants believe that the current cotton policy is very beneficial to the long-term development of the cotton industry, and the recent low level of cotton is the accumulation of energy for the future "peak".

This is in line with the law of price fluctuation around the value curve.

Therefore, cotton merchants will increase the quality of cotton stocks after the Spring Festival holiday.

Current level 2129

The mainland export price is 14600-14800 yuan per ton, but from the quality point of view, it is completely not lost to the SM grade cotton, but at present the United States cotton port warehouse is bottomed out, the price is also at 16200-16300 yuan / ton, both have 1400-1500 yuan / ton price difference, so some cotton merchants think that the high quality new frontier cotton still remains up.

In addition, according to the author's understanding, some large cotton traders judged the quality of cotton in the late part of this year or the situation of "Luoyang paper expensive".

In particular, some Xinjiang ginning plants are "only hoarding" for grade 2129 or above hand picked cotton and long staple cotton, only waiting for the price to sell after the Spring Festival holiday, and the market is "undercurrent surging".

"In the long run, cotton prices are rising."

Some market participants believe that domestic cotton output is less than 6 million 500 thousand tons in 2014 and is still expected to decrease in 2015. Especially with the recovery of global economy, the supply and demand of cotton is changing quietly.

After the Spring Festival, some Xinjiang Corps enterprises still insist on the quotations at the beginning of the cotton market (14500 yuan / ton platform delivery price). Some of the social capital from the real estate and the large cotton traders are also covying the Chinese cotton market. Once the market supply and demand wind up, the power will soon be "hyped".